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原油市场分析 2019.01.15

时间:2019-10-03 来源:一起做游戏

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市场回顾


昨天原油市场波动陷入胶着。美国股票市场波幅同样收窄。美国政府停摆结束可能成为近期打破市场胶着趋势的重要时间节点。


基本面分析


阿联酋和沙特的能源部长均表示OPEC和非OPEC国家达成的120万桶/日的减产协议的影响将会在稍晚时间显现。近期,越来越多的OPEC和非OPEC成员国表示对维持市场稳定的决心。但是委内瑞拉总统有表示在2025年前,委内瑞拉的原油产量可能达500万桶/日。近期,美国表示可能进一步增加对委内瑞拉的制裁。当前,整个基本面市场的信息较为错综复杂,进而加剧当前胶着的波动趋势。


根据第三方数据,伊朗的原油出口在美国对其石油产业实施制裁后骤降。所以需要重点关注1月17日OPEC月报中,有关OPEC原油产量和伊朗石油出口量的相关数据。


技术分析


技术层面,原油价格反弹尚未突破第一个阻力位。在周三周四公布的EIA周报和OPEC月报可能成为,本周打破当前区间的重要时间节点。


English Version


The fluctuation of crude market was struggling in last trading session. U.S. stock market was also flat. The ending of U.S. government shutdown may become the important time point.


Both UAE energy minister and SA oil minister showed that OPEC had decided to cut oil output by 1.2 million bpd which will have great influence on crude market later. Recently, most OPEC countries have expressed their willingness to maintain market stability. Venezuelan crude outputs will rise to 5 million bpd before 2025, Venezuelan President said. However, United States may impose more sanctions on Venezuela in the future. Now, the fundamental of crude market is complex, which may lead to struggling trend.


According to the data from third party, Iranian crude exports sharply dropped after United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. OPEC monthly report will be released on 17th, Jan, 2018. So it is important to focus on the data about OPEC crude outputs and Iranian crude export.


Technically, crude price is struggling around the first resistance. EIA weekly report and OPEC monthly report will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Crude price may sharply fluctuated at these two time points.


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